4 Nov · 13:45 MEZLow · Slight Edge
WV
🏆Wim Verdonschot
ELO 1690
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Verdonschot
SG
🏆Simon Gauzy
ELO 1679
FormWLLLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Verdonschot
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 36% · 2.82· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+11
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.