4 Nov · 19:05 MEZMedium · Model Lean
JL
🏆Jonghoon Lim
ELO 1630
FormLLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kallberg
AK
🏆Anton Kallberg
ELO 1654
FormLLWLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Kallberg
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.