3 Nov · 20:50 MEZMedium · Model Lean
TP
🏆Tomislav Pucar
ELO 1610
FormLLWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Coton
FC
🏆Flavien Coton
ELO 1637
FormLLWLW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Coton
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
3-1
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.