8 Nov · 13:15 MEZMedium · Model Lean
PF
🏆Patrick Franziska
ELO 1799
FormWWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Franziska
ST
🏆Shunsuke Togami
ELO 1774
FormWWWLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Franziska
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.