29 Jun · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OK
🏓Olav Kosolosky
ELO 1730
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Fadeev
KF
🏓Kirill Fadeev
ELO 1733
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Fadeev
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 82% · 1.22· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
19%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+3
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.