Challenger Series Predictions

A transparent Elo model for Challenger Series table tennis (International) · updated 11 h ago

Setka Cup Czech Liga Pro TT Elite Series TT Cup Setka Cup Women Challenger Series

Model Track RecordCalibration: Good

Walk-forward · last 9.335 graded predictions

74.9%Pick Accuracy

0.171Brier Score

0.513Log Loss

★ Featured Match▮▮▮ High Confidence

23 Jun · 07:00 UTCTip: Danzer

🏓Makoto Nogami

ELO 1400

FormWWLLW

93%AI Win ChanceStrong Favorite · Danzer

🏓Matthias Danzer

ELO 1752

FormWWLLW

93%

Expected WinnerDanzer

Elo Advantage+352

ConfidenceElite

Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 79%Total ~68 pts

0-3

48%

1-3

31%

2-3

14%

3-2

3-1

Why this pick? · 2 reasons

✓Higher Elo rating (+352)
✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)

Full prediction page →

Recent Results

Every prediction scored against the real result — nothing hidden.

80%

160 of last 200

✓

Matthias Danzer vs Linus Dreykorn

22 Jun · 16:40 UTC

pick Danzer 94%

3-0

Thomas Pellny vs Marco Stefanidis

Andrii Ostrovskyi vs Matthias Danzer

22 Jun · 15:40 UTC

pick Danzer 93%

0-3

Marco Stefanidis vs Kirill Fadeev

22 Jun · 15:10 UTC

pick Fadeev 91%

3-0

Thomas Pellny vs Sven Happek

Makoto Nogami vs Linus Dreykorn

22 Jun · 14:50 UTC

pick Nogami 50%

3-0

Thomas Pellny vs Matthias Danzer

Sven Happek vs Kirill Fadeev

22 Jun · 13:40 UTC

pick Fadeev 96%

0-0

Marco Stefanidis vs Linus Dreykorn

22 Jun · 13:40 UTC

pick Dreykorn 53%

3-1

Andrii Ostrovskyi vs Makoto Nogami

22 Jun · 12:50 UTC

pick Ostrovskyi 53%

0-3

Matthias Danzer vs Kirill Fadeev

Sven Happek vs Marco Stefanidis

22 Jun · 11:45 UTC

pick Stefanidis 68%

1-3

Andrii Ostrovskyi vs Linus Dreykorn

Thomas Pellny vs Makoto Nogami

Sven Happek vs Linus Dreykorn

Matthias Danzer vs Marco Stefanidis

Makoto Nogami vs Kirill Fadeev

Thomas Pellny vs Andrii Ostrovskyi

Matthias Danzer vs Sven Happek

22 Jun · 08:00 UTC

pick Danzer 97%

3-0

Makoto Nogami vs Marco Stefanidis

22 Jun · 07:30 UTC

pick Stefanidis 53%

3-1

Accuracy Over Time

Stable numbers across windows mean the model isn't drifting. Sample size shown so equal rates aren't misread.

Last 7 days

73.3%

n = 60Brier 0.166

Last 30 days

78.7%

n = 178Brier 0.147

All time

74.9%

n = 9.335Brier 0.171

Calibration

Predicted vs actual win rate per band — close numbers mean the probabilities are honest.

BandExpectedActualn

50–55%53.2%54.3%886

55–60%57.4%60.3%1010

60–65%62.5%64.2%1042

65%+81.7%81.8%6397

Reliability

On the diagonal = honest. Above it = the model was too cautious, below = overconfident.

Prediction Distribution

Where today's win probabilities land — the model stays honest, not overconfident.

50–55%

55–60%

60–65%

14%

65%+

86%

Elo Leaderboard

The strongest Setka Cup players by live Elo rating.

Irvin Bertrand

WWWWW

131M1993

Rafael Turrini

WWWWW

459M1927

Dennis Klein

WWWWW

580M1927

Antonin Gavlas

WLLWW

108M1850

Viktor Yefimov

LWWWW

111M1844

Florian Bluhm

LWWWW

482M1843

Amirreza Abbasi

WWWWL

168M1834

Dauud Cheaib

LLLWW

864M1831

Dimitrije Levajac

WWWWW

62M1830

Simon Berglund

LLWWW

98M1815

Sudhanshu Grover

WWWWW

84M1803

David Reitspies

LWWWW

52M1773

Benjamin Fruchart

LWLWW

134M1770

Olav Kosolosky

LWWWW

117M1761

Matthias Danzer

WWLLW

360M1752

Andreas Levenko

LWWWW

44M1750

Enio Mendes

WWWWW

101M1721

Carlo Rossi

WLWLL

89M1720

Guilherme Teodoro

WWWWL

135M1711

Daniel Rinderer

LWWWL

414M1710

Confidence tiersElite65%+High60–65%Medium55–60%Low<55%· win probability of the favourite

How it works. An Elo model trained on real Challenger Series results estimates each player's strength; the win probability follows from the rating gap, temperature-calibrated against past outcomes. No market odds, no value claims — just transparent model output and its measured accuracy.

9.658 matches · 307 players tracked since 16 Feb 2021.

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