29 Jun · 11:00 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
LK
🏓Luis Kraus
ELO 1467
FormLLLLW
87%Win chancemodel fair 1.15Fadeev
KF
🏓Kirill Fadeev
ELO 1733
FormWLLWW
13%
87%
🌟Kraus stays under total as underdog 63% (30)
Fair odds · Fadeev
Model 87% · 1.15vsMarket 83% · 1.21· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 70%Total ~70 pts
0-3
39%
1-3
31%
2-3
17%
3-2
6%
3-1
4%
Elo Gap+266
H2H7-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+266)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-1)