29 Jun · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DR
🏓Daniel Rinderer
ELO 1716
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kosolosky
OK
🏓Olav Kosolosky
ELO 1730
FormLWWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Kosolosky
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+14
H2H2-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.