29 Jun · 09:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LK
🏓Luis Kraus
ELO 1467
FormLLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Carrillo
SC
🏓Sergio Carrillo
ELO 1500
44%
56%
🌟Kraus stays under total as underdog 63% (30)
Fair odds · Carrillo
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 31% · 3.20· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.