6 Jul · 11:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DR
🏓Daniel Rinderer
ELO 1725
FormWLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Rinderer
KF
🏓Kirill Fadeev
ELO 1724
FormLWWLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Rinderer
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
3-0
19%
3-1
18%
1-3
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+1
H2H6-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.