6 Jul · 10:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SC
🏓Sergio Carrillo
ELO 1485
FormLLLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Carrillo
LK
🏓Luis Kraus
ELO 1459
FormLWWLL
55%
45%
🌟Kraus stays under total as underdog 63% (30)
Fair odds · Carrillo
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~71 pts
3-0
21%
3-1
20%
1-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+26
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.