20 Jul · 11:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MD
🏓Matthias Danzer
ELO 1779
FormLLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Danzer
DR
🏓Daniel Rinderer
ELO 1748
FormLWWWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Danzer
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 64% · 1.57· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~72 pts
3-0
21%
3-1
20%
1-3
16%
0-3
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+31
H2H9-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-5)