23 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LQ
🏓Liang Qiu
ELO 1568
FormLLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Loffler
JL
🏓Jeromy Loffler
ELO 1593
FormLLWWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Loffler
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~71 pts
0-3
20%
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+25
H2H2-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.