27 Jul · 17:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KZ
🏓Karl Zimmermann
ELO 1403
FormLWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zimmermann
KM
🏓Kai Moosmann
ELO 1382
FormLLWLL
54%
46%
🌟Moosmann rarely covers set handicap as underdog 32% (25)
Fair odds · Zimmermann
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~70 pts
3-0
20%
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+21
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.