27 Jul · 08:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KZ
🏓Kai Zimmermann
ELO 1500
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Zimmermann
MF
🏓Michael Fuchs
ELO 1461
FormLWWLL
57%
43%
🌟Fuchs covers set handicap as underdog 69% (29)
Fair odds · Zimmermann
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 46% · 2.15· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~72 pts
3-0
21%
3-1
21%
1-3
16%
0-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.