3 Aug · 14:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JW
🏓Johannes Willeke
ELO 1345
FormLLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Nogami
MN
🏓Makoto Nogami
ELO 1382
FormLWLLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Nogami
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~73 pts
0-3
21%
1-3
21%
3-1
16%
3-0
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.