3 Aug · 12:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LK
🏓Luis Kraus
ELO 1471
FormLLLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Neumaier
MN
🏓Marcel Neumaier
ELO 1519
FormWWLLL
41%
59%
🌟Kraus stays under total as underdog 68% (102)
Fair odds · Neumaier
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 43%Total ~72 pts
0-3
22%
1-3
21%
2-3
15%
3-1
15%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+48
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)