10 Aug · 10:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JG
🏓Juri Grauer
ELO 1310
FormLLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Willeke
JW
🏓Johannes Willeke
ELO 1346
FormLLLLL
44%
56%
🌟Grauer rarely covers set handicap as underdog 25% (24)
Fair odds · Willeke
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~69 pts
0-3
21%
1-3
21%
3-1
16%
3-0
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.