10 Aug · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🏓Marco Stefanidis
ELO 1427
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stefanidis
MO
🏓Melih Ozdemir
ELO 1423
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Stefanidis
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 68% · 1.47· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~72 pts
3-0
19%
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+4
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.