20 Aug · 15:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MD
🏓Matthias Danzer
ELO 1773
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rinderer
DR
🏓Daniel Rinderer
ELO 1780
FormWWWWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Rinderer
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~72 pts
0-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+7
H2H6-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.