7 Sept · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🏓Marius Henninger
ELO 1531
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Senkbeil
VS
🏓Vincent Senkbeil
ELO 1541
FormWLWWW
48%
52%
🌟Senkbeil covers set handicap as favourite 67% (21)
Fair odds · Senkbeil
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
0-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+10
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.