24 Sept · 11:00 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
DZ
🏓Damian Zech
ELO 1363
FormLLLWL
70%Win chancemodel fair 1.43Naplokov
ON
🏓Oleksii Naplokov
ELO 1478
FormLLLWW
30%
70%
Fair odds · Naplokov
Model 70% · 1.43vsMarket 78% · 1.28· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 55%Total ~70 pts
0-3
30%
1-3
24%
2-3
15%
3-1
12%
3-2
9%
Elo Gap+115
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+115)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)