24 Sept · 17:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LK
🏓Luis Kraus
ELO 1473
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Naplokov
ON
🏓Oleksii Naplokov
ELO 1478
FormLLLWW
49%
51%
🌟Kraus stays under total as underdog 65% (111)
Fair odds · Naplokov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~71 pts
0-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+5
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.