28 Sept · 12:30 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
RT
🏓Rafael Turrini
ELO 1845
FormWWWLW
70%Win chancemodel fair 1.43Bertrand
IB
🏓Irvin Bertrand
ELO 1964
FormWWWWW
30%
70%
Fair odds · Bertrand
Model 70% · 1.43vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 58%Total ~69 pts
0-3
32%
1-3
26%
2-3
13%
3-1
11%
3-2
10%
Elo Gap+119
H2H6-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+119)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-1)