12 Oct · 13:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
CS
🏓Cosmo Schmitt
ELO 1315
FormLWLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Schmitt
SH
🏓Sven Happek
ELO 1283
FormLLLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Schmitt
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 28% · 3.62· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~72 pts
3-0
21%
3-1
20%
1-3
16%
0-3
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+32
H2H0-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.