12 Oct · 14:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🏓John Misal
ELO 1561
FormLLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Misal
KZ
🏓Karl Zimmermann
ELO 1536
FormLWLWL
55%
45%
🌟Misal stays under total as favourite 67% (12)
Fair odds · Misal
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~72 pts
3-0
20%
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+25
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.