12 Oct · 17:30 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
LK
🏓Luis Kraus
ELO 1456
FormWLLWL
64%Win chancemodel fair 1.56Zimmermann
KZ
🏓Karl Zimmermann
ELO 1536
FormLWLWL
36%
64%
🌟Kraus stays under total as underdog 65% (115)
Fair odds · Zimmermann
Model 64% · 1.56vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 50%Total ~70 pts
0-3
28%
1-3
22%
3-1
15%
2-3
14%
3-2
11%
Elo Gap+80
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+80)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)