19 Oct · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MN
🏓Makoto Nogami
ELO 1401
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lama
JL
🏓Jaime Lama
ELO 1417
FormLLLLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Lama
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~73 pts
0-3
20%
1-3
19%
3-1
17%
3-0
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+16
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.