2 Nov · 12:00 MEZLow · Slight Edge
TC
🏓Tom Colvin
ELO 1271
FormLLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Colvin
AM
🏓Alex Moreno
ELO 1256
FormLWWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Colvin
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~74 pts
3-0
20%
3-1
19%
1-3
17%
0-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+15
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.