2 Nov · 15:30 MEZLow · Slight Edge
TC
🏓Tom Colvin
ELO 1274
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Colvin
CS
🏓Cosmo Schmitt
ELO 1264
FormLLLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Colvin
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-0
19%
3-1
19%
1-3
17%
0-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+10
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.