9 Nov · 17:30 MEZMedium · Model Lean
PK
🏓Pylyp Koloidenko
ELO 1386
FormLLLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Naplokov
ON
🏓Oleksii Naplokov
ELO 1419
FormLLLLL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Naplokov
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 25% · 4.00· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~71 pts
0-3
21%
1-3
20%
3-1
16%
3-0
15%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+33
H2H0-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.