9 Nov · 14:00 MEZLow · Coin Flip
JL
🏓Jaime Lama
ELO 1417
FormLLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Naplokov
ON
🏓Oleksii Naplokov
ELO 1419
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Naplokov
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~71 pts
0-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-1
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+2
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.