Handicap & cover stats explained
On player pages and the trends page we show "cover" stats. They sound technical but the idea is simple — here's what they actually measure.
What 'covering' means
Bookmakers set handicap lines — e.g. a favourite at −1.5 sets must win by two or more to "cover". A cover rate is just how often a player did that, measured against the real closing line at the time of each match.
We split it by role, because a player covers very differently as the favourite than as the underdog.
Set vs points handicap, and totals
Set handicap is about the margin in sets; points handicap is finer, about total points. Totals (over/under) measure how long and one-sided a match tends to be. A player who consistently blows opponents away looks very different here from one who grinds out tight wins.
Why we show it (and what it's not)
It's a historical profile against real lines — a way to see a player's tendencies, not a prediction or a tip. We found no reliable edge versus closing markets, so these are descriptive only. Small samples are hidden until there's enough data to mean something.