26 Jun · 18:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Michal Derco
ELO 1400
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Derco
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Motak
ELO 1351
FormWWLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Derco
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+49
H2H7-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.