9 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MD
🇨🇿Michal Derco
ELO 1419
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stolba
MS
🇨🇿Miroslav Stolba
ELO 1447
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Stolba
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.