9 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IK
🇨🇿Ivan Kolenciak
ELO 1384
FormWWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Derco
MD
🇨🇿Michal Derco
ELO 1419
FormWLWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Derco
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.