17 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IP
🇨🇿Ivo Palmi
ELO 1365
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Derco
MD
🇨🇿Michal Derco
ELO 1406
FormLLWLW
48%
52%
🌟Palmi rarely covers set handicap as underdog 37% (19)
Fair odds · Derco
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.