17 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IK
🇨🇿Ivan Kolenciak
ELO 1395
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Derco
MD
🇨🇿Michal Derco
ELO 1406
FormLLWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Derco
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 40% · 2.52· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~73 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.