17 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Michal Derco
ELO 1406
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Derco
JF
🇨🇿Jiri Foltynek
ELO 1341
FormWLWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Derco
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 73% · 1.38· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+65
H2H5-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.