20 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Michal Derco
ELO 1385
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Derco
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Motak
ELO 1307
FormLLLLL
54%
46%
🌟Motak stays under total as underdog 75% (12)
Fair odds · Derco
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+78
H2H7-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.