20 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LM
🇨🇿Lukas Martinec
ELO 1368
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Derco
MD
🇨🇿Michal Derco
ELO 1385
FormWLLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Derco
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.