2 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Michal Derco
ELO 1440
FormWWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Derco
JF
🇨🇿Jiri Foltynek
ELO 1366
FormLLWWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Derco
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 75% · 1.34· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+74
H2H7-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.