14 Sept · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VR
🇨🇿Vaclav Rybar
ELO 1482
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rybar
MD
🇨🇿Michal Derco
ELO 1455
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
🌟Derco covers set handicap as underdog 63% (30)
Fair odds · Rybar
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.