14 Sept · 09:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MD
🇨🇿Michal Derco
ELO 1455
FormWLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Derco
ML
🇨🇿Matej Levicky
ELO 1350
FormLLLLW
55%
45%
🌟Derco stays under total as favourite 64% (22)
Fair odds · Derco
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+105
H2H2-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+105)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)