8 Nov · 12:30 MEZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Michal Derco
ELO 1446
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Derco
BS
🇨🇿Bohumil Skulina
ELO 1396
FormWLLWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Derco
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.