3 Jul · 15:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1526
FormWLWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Shevchuk
VS
🇺🇦Viktoria Shevchuk
ELO 1599
FormWLWWL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Shevchuk
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
20%
2-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+73
H2H13-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-4)