5 Jul · 16:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KB
🇺🇦Kateryna Bondarenko
ELO 1671
FormWWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Bondarenko
AV
🇺🇦Anastasiia Volgina
ELO 1611
FormLWWWW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Volgina🌟Volgina covers set handicap as underdog 68% (47)
Fair odds · Bondarenko
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+60
H2H7-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-3)