6 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
NP
🇺🇦Nataliia Plokhotniuk
ELO 1743
FormLWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Plokhotniuk
AO
🇺🇦Alina Ovriakh
ELO 1712
FormLWWWL
54%
46%
🌟Ovriakh stays under total as underdog 71% (17)
Fair odds · Plokhotniuk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H6-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.