7 Jul · 09:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
NP
🇺🇦Nataliia Plokhotniuk
ELO 1760
FormWLWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Plokhotniuk
AO
🇺🇦Alina Ovriakh
ELO 1700
FormLWLLW
58%
42%
🌟Ovriakh stays under total as underdog 71% (17)
Fair odds · Plokhotniuk
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+60
H2H7-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-4)