15 Jul · 13:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
UD
🇺🇦Ulana Dronova
ELO 1577
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dronova
SY
🇺🇦Svitlana Yureneva
ELO 1550
FormLWLWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Dronova
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H8-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.